Episode 493: Listener Emails for Your Off-Day
Date July 16, 2014 Summary Ben and Sam banter about the All-Star Game and answer listener emails about All-Stars vs. Snubs, overly long-term contracts, teaming up on Trout, and more. Topics * Hypothetical perfect or high strikeout games * All-Stars vs. non All-Stars * Overly long contracts * Adding defenders against Mike Trout * Worst hitters at each lineup spot * Hall of Fame voting in the Statcast era Intro Sonic Youth, "I Know There's An Answer" Banter * Sam counted every reference made to every player during the All-Star Game. * Derek Jeter media attention during the All-Star Game. Email Questions * Adam (Dallas, TX): "Hypothetical time. You are a right fielder in MLB. Your team's pitcher is throwing a perfect game in the bottom of the ninth but this isn't your average perfect game. The starter has struck out the previous 26 batters and your team is up by 10 runs. The ball is hit and you are camped under it well into foul territory (think O.Co amount of foul territory). What do you do? Catch the ball, ensuring your pitcher gets the perfect game, or let it drop and risk the perfect game but give the pitcher a chance at something truly spectacular. Does the number of strikes on the batter at the plate factor into your decision? Would you ever consider doing it on anything but the last out?" * Dan: "Suppose you were to put together two 25 man rosters. One from a pool of All-Stars and the other from the top players who didn't make the All-Star team. What would the probability be of the non All-Stars winning? I don't doubt that it would be less than 50% but is it 49%, 45%, 40%? I imagine that they would have to play a series of games to get full use of rotations, benches, and bullpens, so maybe the better question is if they play 100 games how many would the non All-Stars win?" * Adam: "As I ponder how my Reds are going to craft their payroll around the $25 million they'll owe to the .220 hitting Joey Votto in 2021, I'm curious to get your thoughts on the maximum length of a contract you'd be willing to sign a player to. Maybe for a 25, 28, and 30 year old player. Also, what do you believe will be the tipping point to scare teams off from giving non Trout-ian players super long contracts?" * Scott (Pelham, NY): "Watching the World Cup final on Sunday was amazing how quickly the German defenders would double team and sometimes triple team Lionel Messi when he controlled the ball on the German side of the field. Throughout the tournament Messi appeared to be orders of magnitude than almost all his teammates and opponents, not unlike Mike Trout. Baseball's batter/pitcher matchup is celebrated as an individual confrontation but what if the rules could be changed to allow double teaming of Mike Trout? What would those rules look like and how could they successfully neutralize Trout as well as the German side shut down Messi in the final?" * James: "I never thought the Braves could find a more harmful spot in their lineup for B.J. Upton until they moved him to the leadoff spot. So my question is, in terms of a catchall offensive stat, who had the worst offensive season at each spot in the batting order, subject to a minimum number of plate appearances at each spot? Obviously I'm imagining some replacement level middle infielder atop the list for the second spot in the batting order but I'd be interested to see where B.J. Upton's 2013 falls." * Brett: "The rapid improvement in the technology used to track pitchers and fielders means that recording player's contributions to their team's success with close to 100% accuracy is foreseeable in the very near future. My question is about the least consequential aspect of the coming improvements to WARP, WAR, win shares, and other composite measures: Hall of Fame voting. Most of last week's topics on the podcast dealt with your legacies and rightly so given Friday's announcement. Something you may not have considered is that you may be members of the last generation of baseball writers who will debate the Hall of Fame credentials of the players you've made a living covering. We can't know if Chase Utley produced more for his teams than Todd Helton, Bobby Abreau, or Gary Sheffield. The answer for Buxton, Russell, Correa, and their contemporaries is going to be much, much clearer. So who do you think might end up being your Jim Rice or Bruce Sutter or Jack Morris, the player you vote for because he seemed like a Hall of Famer and your Ron Santo or Burt Blyleven or Alan Trammell, the player you don't vote for because he didn't seem like one. And your Bernie Williams or Dale Murphy as the player you'd happily vote for if you thought he had a chance." Play Index * Based on James' question, Sam looks up the worst hitters at each lineup spot since 1988, setting a minimum of 300 plate appearances at the lineup spot. Sam used different offensive stats based on the spot in the lineup. * Leadoff: Andrelton Simmons, 2013, .256 OBP * 2nd: Jack Wilson, 2001, .255 OBP * 3rd: Junior Felix, 1992, .638 OPS * 4th: Alan Trammell, 1989, 3 HR * 5th: Tim Wallach, 1992, .311 SLG * 6th: Gary Carter, 1998, .593 OPS * 7th: Kirt Manwaring, .574 OPS * 8th: Alfredo Griffin, 1988, .513 OPS Notes * Ben, on his upcoming vacation, "If anything were to happen to me I would want you to end the week on a multiple of five." * Sam thinks the All-Stars would win 54% of games against non All-Stars. Ben guesses 56%. * Sam says that if there were a sufficient discount given for extended years, he would have no problem signing a much longer (15 year at least) deal. * Mike Trout would have a slugging percentage of .375 if you removed all of his home runs. * Casey McGehee has only 1 HR this year and has spent most of the season batting in the cleanup spot. * Sam says he would vote for Buster Posey for the Hall of Fame. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 493: Listener Emails for Your Off-Day * This Time, We Count by Sam Miller Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes